Today the S&P 500 closed above 2000 for the first time.
Exactly two years ago this week I wrote a post about the general trend of the markets, and made some predictions about when the S&P might cross the 2,000 mark.
Back then in August 2012, the S&P 500 was at 1400, confidence was low, and we were all still reeling from the Great Recession. S&P 2000 seemed like an eternity away.
But the historical data suggested otherwise. Quantitative analysis of historical market data can help maintain perspective, especially in turbulent times. The analyses suggested that the S&P would cross 2000 in the year 2017. And if Wall Street had not blown up the world in 2008, it would have happened in early 2014.
As unlikely as it seemed back in 2012, it did indeed cross that milestone today.
Lest anyone think that I am prescient and should quit my day job and be a Wall Street analyst, here is a link to another prediction I made (also in 2012) that Facebook, when it was at 19, was on its way down to the single digits. 🙂
So now what? Should we sell at these levels?
Who knows? It’s always prudent to take some chips off the table for a rainy day or a new toy. But the data suggests we can expect the S&P to continue to move up over the long term. S&P 3000 may be just 5 ½ years away.